Report · 2026
Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C
UNEP
Summary
UNEP's report reframes 1.5°C not as a single line that must not be crossed but as an overshoot window that has to be managed: how high, how long, and how it is brought back down. Every additional tenth of a degree of exceedance raises the risk of irreversible outcomes — ice sheets, coral reefs, sea-level rise — so rapid mitigation must be paired with adaptation and credible carbon removal capacity. A direct agenda document for COP31 and the primary source behind the 2 September 2026 essay "Antalya's new test: 1.5°C has been exceeded".
Summary written for this site; the report itself belongs to its publisher.
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